or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[01/24/20 - 02:38 PM]
ABC News' Prime-Time Special "Royal Divide: Harry, Meghan, and The Crown" Airs Wednesday, Jan. 29
Look for the one-hour special on said night at 10:00/9:00c.

[01/24/20 - 12:01 PM]
Mark Cuban, Dr. Phil, Ryan Seacrest, Piers Morgan and Lisa Vanderpump to Be Featured in "Harry & Meghan: The Royals in Crisis"
As previously announced, the one-hour special bows Wednesday, January 29 on FOX.

[01/24/20 - 11:02 AM]
MTV Studios and Quibi Announce Chance the Rapper as the Host of "Punk'd"
"Punk'd" will be reimagined for a new generation and will be available only on Quibi's mobile video platform.

[01/24/20 - 08:40 AM]
Video: Showtime(R) Releases Season Two Trailer and Key Art for Docu-Series "The Trade"
The four-part season follows Central Americans on an odyssey to the United States (including some heading back home after being deported), while also delving into the shadow industries that prey on them every step along the way.

[01/24/20 - 08:12 AM]
Thursday's Broadcast Ratings: ABC's Dramas Return on Top
"Station 19" is the night's most-watched program while "Grey's Anatomy" leads the evening among adults 18-49.

[01/24/20 - 06:57 AM]
Final Round of Performers Confirmed for "The 62nd Annual Grammy Awards(R)"
This year's presenters include Common, Ava DuVernay, Cynthia Erivo, Jim Gaffigan, Dua Lipa, Trevor Noah, Sharon and Ozzy Osbourne, Billy Porter, Bebe Rexha, Smokey Robinson, Shania Twain, Keith Urban and Stevie Wonder.

[01/24/20 - 05:02 AM]
TV One Puts a New Spin on Romance with the Original Film "Steppin' Back to Love" Premiering Saturday, February 8 at 8 P.M. ET/7C
The film follows a once-loving couple connected by dance, who after facing marital struggles, use their passion for Chicago-style step-dancing to reignite the spark in their marriage.

[01/23/20 - 01:43 PM]
MTV's "Jersey Shore Family Vacation" Returns on Thursday, February 27th at 8PM ET/PT
After a tumultuous year, Mike "The Situation" rejoins the group after his long-awaited release from prison, and the roommates finally feel whole again and ready for a fresh start.

[01/23/20 - 01:28 PM]
Guy Fieri Hosts New Bracket-Style Culinary Competition Series "Tournament of Champions"
The five-part series launches Wednesday, March 4 at 10:00/9:00c on Food Network.

[01/23/20 - 12:51 PM]
92nd Oscars(R) Performers Announced
Cynthia Erivo, Elton John, Idina Menzel, Chrissy Metz and Randy Newman will perform the nominated songs.

[01/23/20 - 12:48 PM]
Oxygen's "In Ice Cold Blood" Hosted by Ice-T Returns Thursday, February 13 at 9PM ET/PT
During each hour-long episode, in-depth interviews and archival footage merge to spotlight an intriguing mystery, recounted through the lens of expert detective work, unpredictable twists and jaw-dropping discoveries.

[01/23/20 - 12:04 PM]
New Science Channel Series "Curse of the Bermuda Triangle" Premieres February 9
With dozens of years of experience at sea between them, the members of the Triangle Research and Investigation Group, or TRIG team, are led by long time captain and former Coast Guardsman Paul "Moe" Mottice.

[01/23/20 - 11:05 AM]
New Season of "Ballmastrz: 9009" Returns February 23 on Adult Swim
Special guest stars this season include Ed Asner, Rachel Dratch, Jo Firestone, Doc Hammer, Stephanie Sheh and Cree Summer.

[01/23/20 - 10:45 AM]
Travel Channel Renews Haunting Series "The Holzer Files" to Retrace More Cases from America's First Ghost Hunter
The series will return in late 2020 with 13 brand new episodes.

[01/23/20 - 10:13 AM]
OWN: Oprah Winfrey Network Renews Four Hit Unscripted Series: "Love & Marriage: Huntsville," "Ready to Love," "Black Women OWN the Conversation" and "Black Love"
The new seasons will air later in 2020.